Calgary Zone Covid-19 Case & Variants Update March 2021

Total variant cases

Total variant cases

The first P1 variant was identified in Alberta March 13 & added.

Alberta Health started tracking variant cases with a trend chart this month, they note: NOTE: People are identified as COVID-19 cases prior to variant of concern identification. As such, variant of concern reporting is delayed compared to date the case was reported to Alberta Health. All cases were screened for variants of concern starting at the beginning of February, 2021.

This may explain the change in how data was reported. As responses to previous inquiries are rarely responded to or do not provide the answer, new inquiry efforts to clarify are not pursued, data is just displayed based on their daily published #’s

New cases

New cases

Active cases

Active cases

Total confirmed

Total confirmed

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Understanding Vaccine Efficacy

  • How efficacy is determined

  • Why you cannot compare them

  • The purpose of vaccines

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3odScka55A

Other AHS notes:

**Zone of current hospitalization and current ICU admission based on location of hospitalization, NOT zone of patient residence.

data still sourced from

https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-alberta-data.aspx

When the meltdown hit, this company chose lean accounting over layoffs

Peter Desloge CEO Watlow Lean Accounting over layoffs.jpg

Peter Desloge, CEO of Watlow, which encourages everyone, including workers, to innovate.

  • traditional #accounting methods focuses on short term results & don’t recognize the gains achieved

 Full article here:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/business-education/lean-accounting-not-layoffs-gives-company-long-term-vision-of-success/article14406522

 

12th Ebola Outbreak Trend

20210228 Ebola Outbreak 12.jpg

2021 Ebola Outbreak tracking – Feb.

As I anticipate the same lack of simple visual status regarding the 12th and potentially 13th ebola virus outbreaks, I started tracking both and created this chart to see the trend.

To find actual initial dates I dug for backdated articles online to get as close a possible the actual dates cases originated.  I double checked with the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy data at https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/Node/64 which publishes every time a new case occurs (if errors identified please provide sources for correction).  It was a consistent source last time and I will use again.

DRC

North Kivu, a province in the east of the DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo) saw the conclusion of the 10th ebola outbreak last June, followed by the 11th Ebola outbreak in the DRC I tracked here (https://www.ryancartier.com/blog/2020/11/26/11th-ebola-outbreak-declared-over-nov-18-2020).

Authorities confirmed that the wife of a nEbola survivor had died from the disease in Butembo.  It’s still unclear if this is a new outbreak (12th),  or a persistent infection linked to the previous epidemic, but more cases have since been detected.

Guinea

A first case was detected in a nurse who died in late January.  At least 7 people who attended her funeral have reported symptoms, including 5 people who have died.

The WHO said on Monday that the Zaire strain, which is more deadly but against which vaccines are highly effective, was responsible for the cases in Guinea. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/health-authorities-scramble-halt-new-ebola-outbreak-west-africa

Regarding vaccines, two therapeutics, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics' Ebanga mAB114 and a Regeneron antibody cocktail, will be shipped.  Within a short period vaccination programs were initiated.

Calgary Zone Covid-19 cases update & variants Feb 28, 2021

Calgary Zone Total Variant Cases Feb 28 2021.jpg

The first UK B.1.1.7 variant was detected in Alberta in Dec. 24 from a Dec. 15 test and made public Dec 28.

 

The first South African N501Y.V2 variant case in Canada was detected January 8 in Alberta. 

 

All cases were from travelers returning from out of country.  In other words, we imported them.  Canada has not had a proper lock down since covid19 started, and only recently took responsibility for incoming flights.

 

Feb 1

- Calgary zone student UK variant (child of a returning traveler)

 

Feb 3

- Combined COVID mutations are discovered in the UK variant carrying an additional gene mutation seen in a South African variant.

 

Feb 4

- two more UK variant cases in Calgary zone schools (travel related), total of 5 students

 

Feb 17

B.1.429 variant that originated in California and the UK variant have reportedly merged and are being monitored.  This occurs when someone is infected with two strains at the same time.   

- The recombinant carries a mutation from the Kent variant - known as B.1.1.7 - which makes the UK virus more transmissible.

- It also carries another mutation from the California variant - known as B.1.429 - which can produce resistance to antibodies.

I think I’m missing the day by day numbers and lack the time to dig for them, however there is enough to start a trend chart.  Pleases forward links to any data I’m missing and I will update – specify date, variant # in Calgary zone, and link.  

I will use Alberta Health’s published variant data going forward as I have been for regular cases here https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-alberta-data.aspx

I find it strange Alberta Health Services reports Calgary case #'s for the day prior "(ex. Table updated March 1. Numbers accurate as of end of day Feb. 28.) yet for Variant cases it appears as same day (ex. Table updated March 1.)

If they do not know same day cases, how could they know the same day variants cases?

I'd ask but they rarely answer my questions and failed to answer everything I asked last year, so I'll just adjust numbers by a day if needed.  It's still a good representation even if off by 24 hours, and like the ebola trend charts I created, these will be the only ones for Calgary zone variants also unless AB health creates some.  They took several months before providing zones info in 2020.

My Thoughts & Question:

Also, it's getting close to a year, will Canada have it's first real lock down at some point?  Flight traffic - which imported the UK variant - is only being addressed as of recently.

There is no shortage of countries that have taken responsibility and successfully controlled and eliminated the virus, allowing their people to be fairly free again. I can think of 6-8 countries off the top of my head (this article says 30 https://coronavirus.nautil.us/which-countries-have-beaten-covid-19).

Is a short lock down actually less expensive than maintaining virus spread as we’ve been doing in Canada?

I requested the cost of these short lock downs to compare with maintaining the spread as we've done for a year.  

I believe an actual lock down would be a cheaper option and healthier for the both the economy and people’s mental health than what Canada has been doing.  We have enough data from countries that have done this to calculate it, or provide reasonable estimates.

I sent a tweet Nov 3 here https://twitter.com/RyanCartiers/status/1323646488895844352 feel free to retweet if you’ve also curious.


Total Confirmed:

20210228 Calgary zone covid19 Confirmed cases.jpg

New cases only:

20210228 Calgary zone covid19 NEW cases only.jpg

Active cases only:

*Today is first day active cases have not decreased since mid January.

20210228 Calgary zone covid19 ACTIVE cases only.jpg

2 examples of data analytics predicting downtime

Recently I was talking about future opportunities in data analytics, which brought up these 2 examples. They are from the AME presentation by Andrew Au. If you have a chance to listen to him, do so, he’s dialed in to what’s going on. Here are his examples (thank you Andrew):

Tetrapak line controller.jpg

TetraPak 

Swedish, support manufacturing in 175 countries, has invested heavily in cloud technology & holographic computing.  One of the main challenges they look to solve for is “How do we avoid machine downtime?”  obviously very costly downtime.  They looked at specific equipment, servo motors for example used in forming & sealing for food packaging and said “How can we collect more data on these packaging lines so we know when we need to replace these components.”  And particularly for the servo motor it has a lifespan of 2,000 – 7,000 hours.  As you know the average factory is running for 4,000 hours a year.  You’ve got up to a year delta in terms of when you need to replace these components.  The challenge with the motor is if you don’t replace that motor in time, it’s going to destroy a lot of the other components.  So they sensorized their packaging line; they took a 6 month pilot; 11 packaging lines; connected them to the cloud. 

Within 6 months they could predict the failures within 5 of the 11 packaging lines.  We take that a step further, they now have over 5,000 machines that are sensorized, collecting insight, and when their service engineers go to a customer site, they are now armed with that data, they’ve got it on their phones, insights from 5,000 different machines. 

They are walking into the customer site much more equipped, much more knowledgeable; and to improve their first time fix rates they have equipped; they have a few hundred HoloLens’ that are now in the field, so when a service tech goes if it’s a machine they’re not that familiar with they can connect back to the service center and they’re being guided by a deep expert who knows a lot more about the machine than they do; and they’re remotely guiding them on what components they need to be testing. 

An empowered front line and empowered field service operations. 




Jabil.jpg

JABIL. https://www.jabil.com/about-us.html 

A few of the main headwinds they were seeing: 

  • Our customers want mass customization

  • We’re seeing decreasing product life cycles

  • We’re seeing customers demand more & more data from us; they want insights

They’re on this journey evolving from being what they were known as is a contract manufacturer, to a full solution provider for manufacturing.  One of their first steps similar to TetraPak is how do we sensorize our equipment & production lines, and by doing so they get all this data from their manufacturing processes, they look at supply chain they infuse that data, they get data from the field, and they’re applying machine learning algorithms to predict downtime for machines and also design flaws. 

So they’re going back to their customers with insights of “you probably need to be tweaking this design this is where we predict we’re going to be running into failures 22% of the time.” 

They’re shifting from a reactive to a predictive company as they evolve to a full service company.  This is an example of how we can evolve to the customer need, which is ‘give me insights, give me stuff I can actually use, don’t tell me something I already know.’ 

High Trust Organizations, Innovation & Performance, Humour & Leadership

Trust Stage Dive.jpg

Maybe he’s floating

In most of the turnarounds / ramp ups I do one of the major cultural shifts that holds companies back is the blame environment they foster. Management has to replace their outdated toxic behaviour (& harassment lawsuit liability) to build an environment where all employees & staff are comfortable and encouraged to be open about problems and ideas. While to many this is common sense, executives do not always make the connection; here are some stats from a fast co. article (link below) quantifying performance results in firms with safe environments, and some of the psychology behind it:

  • There is a wealth of research that links high-trust organizations to innovation and performance. The 2016 HOW Report, a comprehensive study of organizational effectiveness, concluded that employees who work in high-trust environments are 32 times more likely to take risks that might benefit the company.

  • They’re also 11 times more likely to see more innovation relative to competition,

and 6 times more likely to outperform others in their industry.

 

  • managers perceived to have a sense of humor are rated by subordinates as 23% more respected and 25% more pleasant to work with.

  • In contrast, a 2018 Gallup study found that nearly 50% of Americans have left a job to “get away” from a manager. Employee turnover has increased 88% over the last decade, costing companies billions.

  • Reorienting towards humor is a fundamentally profitable enterprise that today’s leaders can’t afford to miss. One study found that adding a lighthearted line at the end of a sales pitch—like “my final offer is X, and I’ll throw in my pet frog”—increases customers’ willingness to pay by 18%. Another set of studies found that employees who rate their leaders as having a sense of humor—any sense of humor—are 15% more satisfied with their jobs and rate their leaders at 27% more motivating. A set of studies run by Brad Bitterly, Allison Wood Brooks, and Maurice Schweitzer demonstrate that when people use humor at work, they’re attributed 37% higher status, and seen as more competent and more confident.

  • We can chalk this up to the (brain) cocktail these teams are serving up. When people laugh, a neuro-chemical response is activated: their brains flood with dopamine (which increases happiness), endorphins (which increases resilience), and oxytocin (the same “trust hormone” released during sex and childbirth—plus a way to do it that’s more HR-friendly). These hormones make us feel calmer, more confident, and more resourceful—which lowers stress and unlocks more creative thinking.

Humor is such an important leadership trait we teach it at Stanford’s business school

As trust in authority figures erodes, teams want leaders who are inspiring and relatable.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90597762/humor-is-such-an-important-leadership-trait-we-teach-it-at-the-stanford-b-school

the Lego Turnaround

Lego-bricks.jpg

For those who enjoy turnarounds as much as I do,

How Lego Went From Nearly Bankrupt to the Most Powerful Brand in the World

https://www.successagency.com/growth/2018/02/27/lego-bankrupt-powerful-brand

How Lego Became The Apple Of Toys

01-08-15

After a decade-long slump, Lego has rebuilt itself into a global juggernaut. An exclusive look inside the company’s top-secret Future Lab.

https://www.fastcompany.com/3040223/when-it-clicks-it-clicks

Lego banner.jpg

Results:

Lego is so popular, it can’t keep up with demand

The company has worked to reduce sales

By Andrew Liptak

Sep 7, 2016

https://www.theverge.com/2016/9/7/12829974/lego-sales-2016-growth-demand-factory-strain

Lego Sales DKK Billions.jpg

“chart of the LEGO’s complete sales history from its founding in 1932 through its most recent year. LEGO faced bankruptcy in 2003, made some major internal changes, and in 2007 began a period of eight years of 21% annual sales growth and 36% annual profit growth. The streak slowed down in 2016”

https://theleadershipnetwork.com/article/lessons-from-lego-what-do-you-do-when-your-current-growth-phase-ends

Lego Sales 2003-2017 Billions.jpg

Rebuilding Lego, Brick by Brick

How a supply chain transformation helped put the beloved toymaker back together again.

Aug 29, 2007 

Issue 48 (originally published by Booz & Company)

these are my notes/key points, link below to full article, worth reading; also touches on how standardization drives creativity.

“The Lego Group had lost money four out of the seven years from 1998 through 2004. Sales dropped 30% in 2003 and 10% more in 2004, when profit margins stood at –30%. Lego Group executives estimated that the company was destroying €250,000 ($337,000) in value every day.

The Lego Group’s supply chain was at least 10 years out of date.  Poor customer service and spotty availability of products were eroding the com­pany’s franchise in key markets.

it took many years of underperformance before the company realized that the supply chain was a major source of its difficulties.

What made those problems especially hard to identify was that they grew out of the company’s core strengths: its capacity for innovation and its commitment to quality. Those were the very advantages that the company’s leaders had relied on.

Three-quarters of the Lego Group’s sales every year were from new, mostly nonelectronic products. “I believe that the focus on electronic competition was really a blame game,”

the “Kitchen,” the company’s product development lab

disregard for the costs of innovation. The company designers were dreaming up new toys without factoring in the price of materials or the costs of production. That kind of carefree creativity is unsustainable
where cost pressures are a constant concern.

did not align its supply chain with that business strategy.

teams placed their orders haphazardly and changed them frequently, preventing operations from piecing together a reliable picture of demand needs, supply capabilities, and inventory levels. This murkiness led to overall capacity utilization of just 70%.

such a fragmented system
Day-to-day operations were often chaotic. Operators routinely responded to last-minute demands, readily implementing costly changeovers.

rationalizing the cost of the company’s materials would be one of the easier parts of the transformation and would yield savings immediately.

Constraints don’t destroy creativity or product excellence, and they can even enhance them.

the perceived mandate had evolved into a crutch. “This idea had become an emotional concept and an excuse to oppose new cost-saving initiatives,” he says. “Anytime there was something someone didn’t want to do, they would say, ‘You cannot do that because of quality.’”

the Lego Group cut its resin costs in half and shrink its supplier roster by 80%.

the operational team put a process in place to help designers make more cost-effective choices. 

Cost transparency gave developers a new way to define their achievement. “The best cooks are not the ones who have all the ingredients in front of them. They’re the ones who go into whatever kitchen and work with whatever they have,”

a new set of constraints could in fact enable them to become even more creative.”

also needed to move its distribution channels closer to the customer — and to lower its bloated distribution costs.

First, the number of its logistics providers was cut from 26 to three or four — enough to ensure resilience and gain greater economies of scale while still encouraging competition among the suppliers. This step alone saved more than 10% in transportation costs.

leapfrog the competition by redesigning its entire distribution system.

Although many companies have taken manufacturing to lower-cost markets and to contract providers, surprisingly few have done the same with distribution, although identical advantages exist. The Lego Group phased out five centers in Denmark, Germany, and France and created a single new center in the Czech Republic

- saved approximately €50 million ($67 million) since 2004, and forecasts savings in excess of €100 million ($135 million) over the next two years.
The tremendous gains in efficiency meant that despite the impact of rising oil prices on materials and transportation, stock turnover increased by 12 percent in 2005, and the same year, the Lego Group recorded its first profits — €61 million ($72 million) — since 2002. This positive trend further continued in 2006, with the Lego Group turnover up by 11 percent over 2005, and profits up by a staggering 240%

Addressing operations (streamlined product development, sourcing, manufacturing, and distribution) has allowed us to again focus on developing the business, on innovation, and on developing our organization to become a much more creative place to work”

https://www.strategy-business.com/article/07306?gko=813c3

The LEGO Group spells its trademarked brand name and its company name in uppercase letters.

(If you want to know the Lego co.’s origins: https://www.history.com/news/the-disastrous-backstory-behind-the-invention-of-lego-bricks)

Encouraging Evidence in Support of ACL Preservation

Celebrating about a decade of advanced orthopedic treatment resulting in ACL tear regrowth and results. About a year ago I participate in this study to help contribute results.  

It’s amazing public health is still not offering this, and much of the the orthopedic community is a decade behind current practices.

I’m border line starting a petition for to get Alberta Health to stop unnecessary body part removal and protect orthopedic surgeons from a class action lawsuit from the 1100 or so patients a year receiving the wrong procedure.

Calgary Zone Covid-19 cases update Jan 2021

Confirmed cases:

(tried a jpeg format, it’s missing the info box)

20210131 Calgary zone covid19 Confirmed cases.jpg


New Cases:

20210131 Calgary zone covid19 NEW cases only.jpg


Active Cases:

20210131 Calgary zone covid19 ACTIVE cases only.jpg

**Zone of current hospitalization and current ICU admission based on location of hospitalization, NOT zone of patient residence.

I was considering ending my tracking for Calgary zone, however the new variants are not being charted by Alberta Health Services, and the last time it took months for them to provide Calgary zone specific information, so I will chart as I did for variants in the Feb. end of month post.

The 1st Alberta UK variant was detected in Alberta in Dec. 24 from a Dec. 15 test and made public Dec 28.

Jan 8 AB had it’s first SA variant case.

All cases were from travelers returning from out of country. In other words, we imported it. Canada has not had a proper lock down since covid19 started, and is only talking about getting serious about flights.

I will also be tracking the ebola outbreak as I did for the previous 11th outbreak, so a trend visual is available.

GE 2020 Earnings Call - Digital Grid

GE Digital Grid 2020 Earnings Call.jpg

7:50

“In digital grid for example our team used problem solving and daily management to reduce quality defects by 25%.

This helped drive savings that enabled the business to grow operating profit by 60% in 2020.

As this team shows, you can apply lean in any part of the business, NOT just in manufacturing.”

 

“all leaders have action plans to run their businesses leaner with lower inventory levels. In aggregate, our focus and actions to improve working capital are starting to pay off.”