May 3
DRC health ministry declared the end of the country's 12th Ebola outbreak, given that 42 days have passed with no new cases since the last patient was released from treatment.
Guinea
- situation still isn't stable; some contacts lost to follow up; 1 confirmed case remaining in the community, which raises the risk of further spread
“These shared mutations make it unlikely that the new cases are a result of a new spillover from the animal reservoir, but instead are directly linked to human cases in the 2013-2016 West Africa EVD outbreak.”
https://virological.org/t/guinea-2021-ebov-outbreak/643
”Ebola survivors, who face a lot of hardship already. Many have not only lost friends and family to the virus, but also struggle with long-term aftereffects, such as muscle pains and eye problems. In a study published in February, Delaporte found that about half of more than 800 Ebola survivors in Guinea still reported symptoms 2 years after their illness, and one-quarter after 4 years.”
“One important message to the public should be that some people infected with Ebola show few symptoms, meaning people may be survivors without knowing it. “So don’t stigmatize Ebola survivors—you don’t know that you are not a survivor yourself,” Keita says.
April 2
“the case comes in the wake of a cluster of suspicious deaths in the area. Local officials said after the latest case was confirmed, residents first blocked access to response teams, and other people with suspected infections fled the area.”
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/04/news-scan-apr-02-2021
DRC 2021 EBOV outbreak
March 23
“DRC last patient discharged & 42 day countdown begins until the country is declared free from ebola virus again.”
Apr 1
DRC Ebola outbreak relapse patient linked to 91 cases
“He was sick during the DRC's recent large outbreak that spanned 2018 to 2020, the country's 10th and by far the largest.”
“6 months after he received the VSV-EVOV vaccine his 1st ebola illness occurred in 2019. His care included treatment with the mAb114 monoclonal antibody. His semen sample, tested 2 months later, was negative for the virus. About five months after his 2nd ebola infection resulted in death.”
“Genetic analysis of virus from the man's 1st & 2nd infection found that they differed by only two mutations, confirming that his 2nd infection was a relapse.”
“While symptomatic with the 2nd infection, the man was in the community for 8 days and visited two health centers. Investigators found 29 cases that were linked to those exposures, with related cases that totaled 91 across six health zones over the next 4 months.”
“The authors said the case raises questions about the true efficacy of the vaccine, which studies suggest is 100%, and whether passive immunotherapy in rare instances could be associated with relapse. Also, they write that, though rare, relapse cases—as with sexually transmitted cases—should be noted as a potential transmission source.”
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2024670
2021 Ebola Outbreak tracking – Feb.
As I anticipate the same lack of simple visual status regarding the 12th and potentially 13th ebola virus outbreaks, I started tracking both and created this chart to see the trend.
To find actual initial dates I dug for backdated articles online to get as close a possible the actual dates cases originated. I double checked with the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy data at https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/Node/64 which publishes every time a new case occurs (if errors identified please provide sources for correction). It was a consistent source last time and I will use again.
DRC
North Kivu, a province in the east of the DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo) saw the conclusion of the 10th ebola outbreak last June, followed by the 11th Ebola outbreak in the DRC I tracked here (https://www.ryancartier.com/blog/2020/11/26/11th-ebola-outbreak-declared-over-nov-18-2020).
Authorities confirmed that the wife of a nEbola survivor had died from the disease in Butembo. It’s still unclear if this is a new outbreak (12th), or a persistent infection linked to the previous epidemic, but more cases have since been detected.
Guinea
A first case was detected in a nurse who died in late January. At least 7 people who attended her funeral have reported symptoms, including 5 people who have died.
The WHO said on Monday that the Zaire strain, which is more deadly but against which vaccines are highly effective, was responsible for the cases in Guinea.
Regarding vaccines, two therapeutics, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics' Ebanga mAB114 and a Regeneron antibody cocktail, will be shipped. Within a short period vaccination programs were initiated.
WHO (World Health Organization) declared current ebola outbreak over in Wangata Mbandaka region DRC. It started in May, a few months after the corona virus, and during the period in which the 10th outbreak in the eastern DRC was announced over. Stats:
130 cases (119 confirmed and 11 probable)
55 deaths (42.3% case-fatality rate)
75 recoveries.
According to the WHO, an Ebola outbreak is over when 42 days (twice the virus' incubation period) have passed since the last survivor tests positive.
Health officials will continue to watch for cases, as survivors can relapse and/or sexually transmit the virus for up to 6 months.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/11/who-declares-end-drcs-11th-ebola-outbreak
As I could not find any visual tracking, I continued maintaining this chart since my previous post:
