corona virus

Calgary zone Covid-19 Case & Variants update May - AHS admits numbers inaccurate

Alberta Health Services admits on their website they are only screening a sample of positive cases and to “Interpret Case Numbers with Caution”

  • in other words, AHS screening of positive cases is incomplete therefore ‘don't trust our numbers’.

Again AHS decided not to respond to inquiry sent via twitter.

Due to this, it is of questionable value to continue creating the monthly Calgary zone case & variant trend chart updates based on information AHS admits is lacking integrity.

Calgary Zone Total Active Variants.jpg

With Alberta Health’s recommendation to not trust their May 2021 numbers, this may be the final covid update I post, the 1 chart I have not seen them display - Calgary Zone Total ACTIVE Variants - based on their daily published data I could find. I did not see it reported separately or track hence the Feb - Mar gap, however I was able to calculate the initial period.

*Note how fast the reported case #’s dropped, and how variant case #’s did not become the dominant strain as predicted, or as seen in other countries. It is unclear whether this is due to the inaccurate case counts AHS admitted, increasing vaccination rates or people spending more time outdoors.

Given the large # of service workers available receiving CERB payments, there could be an effort by AHS to tap these resources to help make tracing phone calls or case count. This would also reduce pulling trained nurses from the front line to man the phone lines for tracing - and then claim a shortage of nurses.

India variant identified in Alberta May 3.

Schools opened this week though, and the province plans to reopen instead of follow the proven zero covid strategy (details in April covid link) that has consistently resulted in covid free / restriction free countries/provinces.

2021 Alberta Staged Reopening Criteria.jpg


Regarding opening - closing restriction criteria; previous searches have not turned up with a result nor have my inquiries been answered, however the above was recently released. It appears it is based on hospitalizations & vaccination rates.

I’ve been wanting to do an analysis to see if previous opening - closing restriction criteria were based on case numbers. Restrictions were communicated as being in place to reduce healthcare overwhelm, which based on wait times was over capacity in many was prior to the corona virus.
This graphic from CBC allowed me to pull the numbers I’ve been tracking and do the analysis:

Alberta Covid-19 Restriction & Reopening timeline.jpg

Alberta Covid-19 Restriction & Reopening Timeline from CBC

 

May 13 2020 - Stage 1 reopen around 1000 cases & dropping

Jun 11 2020 – stage 2 reopen around 372 cases & increasing

Jul 18 2020 – cases continue climbing past 1000 (would this not trigger Stage 1?)

Nov 23 2020 – after cases climb for 5 months up over 13,000 modest new restriction announced

Dec 13 2020 – after cases further climb over 20,000 stricter restrictions announced

Feb 8 2021 – even though cases have only dropped to 5000, and variants have been identified, this is ignored in lieu of ‘step 1’ easing of restriction (previous trigger 1000 cases)

Feb 23 2021 – at the 2 week mark after easing of restrictions – the corona virus incubation period – cases predictably start increasing again

Mar 8 2021 – ‘step 2’ easing, followed by predictable exponential increase

Apr 6 2021 – instead of addressing the exponential increase, it is allowed to increase above 11,000 before return to ‘step 1’

May 5 2021 – after allowing the largest case climb to date, over 24,300, restrictions similar to the initial pandemic response (which crested at 3,000 cases) are finally returned

May 9 2021 – Alberta hits 25,185 and cases start dropping, however this is only 4 days after restrictions instead of the 2 week incubation period, leaving two explanations:

  1. transmission slowed due to other factors towards the end of April (may include vaccination; people outdoors due to weather)

  2. the numbers are incorrect, plausible as Alberta Health reported on their website that screening is incomplete (“only a sample”) and not to rely on their numbers (“interpret with caution”), therefore it is unclear what the actual case counts are

  • open to other explanations, please share

A cases hospitalized timeline may help determine whether that was what the openings - closing were based on. There is no evidence it was case #’s.

Predictably, restrictions reduce cases, however based on AHS’s recommendation not to rely on their numbers, it is unknown if cases are actually under 9000.

Calgary zone Covid-19 Case & Variants update Apr 2021

Alberta Health added Total Variants Active to their data:

Total ACTIVE variant cases

Total ACTIVE variant cases

Cumulative Variant cases

Cumulative Variant cases

New cases

New cases

Active cases

Active cases

Total confirmed

Total confirmed

Searched to find reopening criteria as the reopening threshold is not maintained between Phase 1 & 2 as demonstrated:

Mar 1, 2021 - announce Phase 2 reopen 1560 cases (is the threshold below 1600 cases?)

Mar 8, 2021 - Phase 2 reopening 1594 cases (if it’s going back up wouldn’t you pause?)

Apr 7, 2021 - Phase 1 return cases over 5000

It is unclear whether the threshold is around 1600 or 5000, or what it is based on.  Search did not turn up clear criteria.

 

Alberta predictably prevents itself from reaching zero covid by reopening & maintaining spread.

 

Some great articles about how the mitigation (maintaining spread) strategy compares to the zero covid strategy, and how the zero covid strategy is healthier for the economy.  It also has shorter lockdowns which do not require masks once everything reopens – even the anti-maskers would be happy about this.

 

Canada Is One Big Pandemic Response Experiment.

It Proves ‘Zero COVID’ Is Best

  • Concludes major French study scanning nations

Those that chose to aggressively eliminate covid19 — China, Australia, Atlantic Canada and others — experienced less social and economic deterioration than those that didn’t.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/04/02/Canada-One-Big-Pandemic-Response-Experiment-Zero-COVID

 


Aiming for zero Covid-19 to ensure economic growth

  • Eliminating Covid-19 is the cheapest path towards economic recovery.

  • adopt an elimination strategy that is not solely based on vaccination.

  • China, Australia, Cambodia, Iceland, New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, Korea, Laos, and Thailand have followed an elimination strategy.

  • The medical and economic arguments for an elimination strategy are overwhelming.

https://voxeu.org/article/aiming-zero-covid-19-ensure-economic-growth

Calgary Zone Covid-19 Case & Variants Update March 2021

Total variant cases

Total variant cases

The first P1 variant was identified in Alberta March 13 & added.

Alberta Health started tracking variant cases with a trend chart this month, they note: NOTE: People are identified as COVID-19 cases prior to variant of concern identification. As such, variant of concern reporting is delayed compared to date the case was reported to Alberta Health. All cases were screened for variants of concern starting at the beginning of February, 2021.

This may explain the change in how data was reported. As responses to previous inquiries are rarely responded to or do not provide the answer, new inquiry efforts to clarify are not pursued, data is just displayed based on their daily published #’s

New cases

New cases

Active cases

Active cases

Total confirmed

Total confirmed

Video Block
Double-click here to add a video by URL or embed code. Learn more

Understanding Vaccine Efficacy

  • How efficacy is determined

  • Why you cannot compare them

  • The purpose of vaccines

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3odScka55A

Other AHS notes:

**Zone of current hospitalization and current ICU admission based on location of hospitalization, NOT zone of patient residence.

data still sourced from

https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-alberta-data.aspx

Calgary Zone Covid-19 cases update & variants Feb 28, 2021

Calgary Zone Total Variant Cases Feb 28 2021.jpg

The first UK B.1.1.7 variant was detected in Alberta in Dec. 24 from a Dec. 15 test and made public Dec 28.

 

The first South African N501Y.V2 variant case in Canada was detected January 8 in Alberta. 

 

All cases were from travelers returning from out of country.  In other words, we imported them.  Canada has not had a proper lock down since covid19 started, and only recently took responsibility for incoming flights.

 

Feb 1

- Calgary zone student UK variant (child of a returning traveler)

 

Feb 3

- Combined COVID mutations are discovered in the UK variant carrying an additional gene mutation seen in a South African variant.

 

Feb 4

- two more UK variant cases in Calgary zone schools (travel related), total of 5 students

 

Feb 17

B.1.429 variant that originated in California and the UK variant have reportedly merged and are being monitored.  This occurs when someone is infected with two strains at the same time.   

- The recombinant carries a mutation from the Kent variant - known as B.1.1.7 - which makes the UK virus more transmissible.

- It also carries another mutation from the California variant - known as B.1.429 - which can produce resistance to antibodies.

I think I’m missing the day by day numbers and lack the time to dig for them, however there is enough to start a trend chart.  Pleases forward links to any data I’m missing and I will update – specify date, variant # in Calgary zone, and link.  

I will use Alberta Health’s published variant data going forward as I have been for regular cases here https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-alberta-data.aspx

I find it strange Alberta Health Services reports Calgary case #'s for the day prior "(ex. Table updated March 1. Numbers accurate as of end of day Feb. 28.) yet for Variant cases it appears as same day (ex. Table updated March 1.)

If they do not know same day cases, how could they know the same day variants cases?

I'd ask but they rarely answer my questions and failed to answer everything I asked last year, so I'll just adjust numbers by a day if needed.  It's still a good representation even if off by 24 hours, and like the ebola trend charts I created, these will be the only ones for Calgary zone variants also unless AB health creates some.  They took several months before providing zones info in 2020.

My Thoughts & Question:

Also, it's getting close to a year, will Canada have it's first real lock down at some point?  Flight traffic - which imported the UK variant - is only being addressed as of recently.

There is no shortage of countries that have taken responsibility and successfully controlled and eliminated the virus, allowing their people to be fairly free again. I can think of 6-8 countries off the top of my head (this article says 30 https://coronavirus.nautil.us/which-countries-have-beaten-covid-19).

Is a short lock down actually less expensive than maintaining virus spread as we’ve been doing in Canada?

I requested the cost of these short lock downs to compare with maintaining the spread as we've done for a year.  

I believe an actual lock down would be a cheaper option and healthier for the both the economy and people’s mental health than what Canada has been doing.  We have enough data from countries that have done this to calculate it, or provide reasonable estimates.

I sent a tweet Nov 3 here https://twitter.com/RyanCartiers/status/1323646488895844352 feel free to retweet if you’ve also curious.


Total Confirmed:

20210228 Calgary zone covid19 Confirmed cases.jpg

New cases only:

20210228 Calgary zone covid19 NEW cases only.jpg

Active cases only:

*Today is first day active cases have not decreased since mid January.

20210228 Calgary zone covid19 ACTIVE cases only.jpg

Calgary Zone Covid-19 cases update Jan 2021

Confirmed cases:

(tried a jpeg format, it’s missing the info box)

20210131 Calgary zone covid19 Confirmed cases.jpg


New Cases:

20210131 Calgary zone covid19 NEW cases only.jpg


Active Cases:

20210131 Calgary zone covid19 ACTIVE cases only.jpg

**Zone of current hospitalization and current ICU admission based on location of hospitalization, NOT zone of patient residence.

I was considering ending my tracking for Calgary zone, however the new variants are not being charted by Alberta Health Services, and the last time it took months for them to provide Calgary zone specific information, so I will chart as I did for variants in the Feb. end of month post.

The 1st Alberta UK variant was detected in Alberta in Dec. 24 from a Dec. 15 test and made public Dec 28.

Jan 8 AB had it’s first SA variant case.

All cases were from travelers returning from out of country. In other words, we imported it. Canada has not had a proper lock down since covid19 started, and is only talking about getting serious about flights.

I will also be tracking the ebola outbreak as I did for the previous 11th outbreak, so a trend visual is available.

Calgary zone covid19 cases only to date August 30, 2020

As reported daily by Alberta Health. They finally responded to one of my questions on twitter about why there is so much of a difference between their daily published numbers and their trend chart. AHS replied “covid19AB cases may fluctuate between daily increases and net increases due to amendments and updates during investigations; this can include transferring out of province cases and resolving the status of probable cases.”

I asked if this means the daily reported #’s are what was identified in Alberta that day, and if Alberta Health is updating for residents testing positive out of province, and subtracting people visiting AB that test positive here, and have heard nothing for 10 days.

Still waiting on responses to my other questions from months ago as well, not expecting a response to them either.

Trend charts based on AHS daily #’s:

20200830 Calgary zone covid19 cases.jpg

Calgary zone TOTAL Confirmed cases to date

20200830 Calgary zone covid19 NEW cases only.jpg

Calgary zone covid19 NEW cases to date

20200830 Calgary zone covid19 ACTIVE cases only.jpg

Calgary zone ACTIVE cases to date

Calgary zone covid19 case update to July 31, 2020

Calgary zone covid19 cases July 31.jpg

Confirmed cases still increasing however recent spike 2 weeks ago seems to have tapered.

Calgary zone covid19 NEW cases only July 31.jpg

Active cases increased for 2 weeks then decreased last week. Mandatory masks start Aug. 1st we’ll see if it has any impact.

Calgary zone covid19 ACTIVE cases only July 31.jpg

Still no proper response from Alberta Health on any questions I’ve asked, they just give me the same link over & over which lacks the information I requested; I also pointed out June 25 the trend chart does not match daily active & confirmed case numbers they published. Here’s the 1st example I sent them:

Alberta Health Reported numbers 2020-07-17.jpg

AHS published 5785 confirmed cases on July 17, the date of this screenshot.

Yet the July 22 trend chart reports

July 17 having 5883 cases.

What accounts for 98 case the difference?

Alberta Health Reported numbers 2020-07-22 1246.jpg
Alberta Health Reported numbers 2020-07-22 1250.jpg

They did not respond to this example. Here’s another: July 30 reports 6470 confirmed cases

20200730 1724 AHS Calgary zone covid19 reported #s.jpg

However the trend chart on August 2 shows a different number of cases on July 30, it says 6499.

20200731 Alberta Health Reported #s Calgary zone.jpg

What accounts for the 39 case difference?

I noticed the numbers are often different so I’ve done a few screen shot examples to have them account for the difference.

Covid19 Cases Jump in Calgary - July 20 update

Calgary zone covid19 cases Jul 20.jpg

Last weekend confirmed cases increased 104, +35/day average

This weekend confirmed cases increased 311, +103/day average, 199% higher than last weekend.

(For some reason AHS has stopped reporting weekend #’s also, so they’re averaged over the weekend)

Calgary zone covid19 ACTIVE cases only Jul 20.jpg

Active cases started climbing again July 10 when they had been steady around 228;

on Friday they were 385 and today (Monday) 553.

Calgary zone covid19 NEW cases only Jul 20.jpg

AHS reported #’s show new cases have jumped in Calgary zone from 75 during the week July 7-10 to 166 new cases during last week, a 121% increase.


Calgary zone covid19 cases

Calgary zone covid19 cases Apr 30.JPG

Data based on Alberta daily reports containing Calgary new & total for that day. 

Where new is not reported, the previous days total is subtracted. 

Results averaged for Apr 15-17 due to fire.

Please send additional links to confirmed numbers for previous dates, particularly missing dates for new cases March 19, April 4 & 11 in comments or tweet @ryancartiers.