alberta healthcare

Calgary zone Covid-19 Case & Variants update May - AHS admits numbers inaccurate

Alberta Health Services admits on their website they are only screening a sample of positive cases and to “Interpret Case Numbers with Caution”

  • in other words, AHS screening of positive cases is incomplete therefore ‘don't trust our numbers’.

Again AHS decided not to respond to inquiry sent via twitter.

Due to this, it is of questionable value to continue creating the monthly Calgary zone case & variant trend chart updates based on information AHS admits is lacking integrity.

Calgary Zone Total Active Variants.jpg

With Alberta Health’s recommendation to not trust their May 2021 numbers, this may be the final covid update I post, the 1 chart I have not seen them display - Calgary Zone Total ACTIVE Variants - based on their daily published data I could find. I did not see it reported separately or track hence the Feb - Mar gap, however I was able to calculate the initial period.

*Note how fast the reported case #’s dropped, and how variant case #’s did not become the dominant strain as predicted, or as seen in other countries. It is unclear whether this is due to the inaccurate case counts AHS admitted, increasing vaccination rates or people spending more time outdoors.

Given the large # of service workers available receiving CERB payments, there could be an effort by AHS to tap these resources to help make tracing phone calls or case count. This would also reduce pulling trained nurses from the front line to man the phone lines for tracing - and then claim a shortage of nurses.

India variant identified in Alberta May 3.

Schools opened this week though, and the province plans to reopen instead of follow the proven zero covid strategy (details in April covid link) that has consistently resulted in covid free / restriction free countries/provinces.

2021 Alberta Staged Reopening Criteria.jpg


Regarding opening - closing restriction criteria; previous searches have not turned up with a result nor have my inquiries been answered, however the above was recently released. It appears it is based on hospitalizations & vaccination rates.

I’ve been wanting to do an analysis to see if previous opening - closing restriction criteria were based on case numbers. Restrictions were communicated as being in place to reduce healthcare overwhelm, which based on wait times was over capacity in many was prior to the corona virus.
This graphic from CBC allowed me to pull the numbers I’ve been tracking and do the analysis:

Alberta Covid-19 Restriction & Reopening timeline.jpg

Alberta Covid-19 Restriction & Reopening Timeline from CBC

 

May 13 2020 - Stage 1 reopen around 1000 cases & dropping

Jun 11 2020 – stage 2 reopen around 372 cases & increasing

Jul 18 2020 – cases continue climbing past 1000 (would this not trigger Stage 1?)

Nov 23 2020 – after cases climb for 5 months up over 13,000 modest new restriction announced

Dec 13 2020 – after cases further climb over 20,000 stricter restrictions announced

Feb 8 2021 – even though cases have only dropped to 5000, and variants have been identified, this is ignored in lieu of ‘step 1’ easing of restriction (previous trigger 1000 cases)

Feb 23 2021 – at the 2 week mark after easing of restrictions – the corona virus incubation period – cases predictably start increasing again

Mar 8 2021 – ‘step 2’ easing, followed by predictable exponential increase

Apr 6 2021 – instead of addressing the exponential increase, it is allowed to increase above 11,000 before return to ‘step 1’

May 5 2021 – after allowing the largest case climb to date, over 24,300, restrictions similar to the initial pandemic response (which crested at 3,000 cases) are finally returned

May 9 2021 – Alberta hits 25,185 and cases start dropping, however this is only 4 days after restrictions instead of the 2 week incubation period, leaving two explanations:

  1. transmission slowed due to other factors towards the end of April (may include vaccination; people outdoors due to weather)

  2. the numbers are incorrect, plausible as Alberta Health reported on their website that screening is incomplete (“only a sample”) and not to rely on their numbers (“interpret with caution”), therefore it is unclear what the actual case counts are

  • open to other explanations, please share

A cases hospitalized timeline may help determine whether that was what the openings - closing were based on. There is no evidence it was case #’s.

Predictably, restrictions reduce cases, however based on AHS’s recommendation not to rely on their numbers, it is unknown if cases are actually under 9000.

Encouraging Evidence in Support of ACL Preservation

Celebrating about a decade of advanced orthopedic treatment resulting in ACL tear regrowth and results. About a year ago I participate in this study to help contribute results.  

It’s amazing public health is still not offering this, and much of the the orthopedic community is a decade behind current practices.

I’m border line starting a petition for to get Alberta Health to stop unnecessary body part removal and protect orthopedic surgeons from a class action lawsuit from the 1100 or so patients a year receiving the wrong procedure.

Finding an Orthopedic Surgeon

20180515 IBLA expl 1.JPG

May 18, 2018

Saturday 2:27am

Mackay Office reply:

“I have forwarded this message to Professor Mackay, and for his advice on theatre availability.”

I settle in to wait the weekend.  (won’t be skiing slushcup Sunshine village this year)

Monday is a Holiday in Canada however not in Scotland so I can follow up then.

My persistence may be paying off, thanks to David Hunt Tribe Medical , Peter from Gateway Surgical did contact me and suggested Jesse Shantz or Andrea Veljkovic are potential providers of current orthopedic practices in Canada; turns out they are also private – I contact them regardless, as the failure of the Canadian Healthcare system is not leaving an alternative.

The earliest option they have is an initial appointment for consultation Wed May 23 followed by surgery in Vancouver May 30.  For some reason private healthcare is not allowed in Alberta, so to provide care patients have to fly to BC for the procedure.  I would return right after, and they suggest I have food for a week or 2 & someone to help me while I’m healing & less mobile. 

Some of my questions were for the surgeon so I wait to hear back from Jesse… 

Emergency Room visit 2

20180402 emerg 2.JPG

Mon Apr 2, 2018

- 16 days after injury

 

Noticed ankle swollen when waking up, paid attention to it and see if it goes away with movement over day.

 

Head to emergency Alberta Health Services after work, another 2 hours wait time *which could be reduced through a Rapid Improvement Event. 

Plenty of examples where this has been done, can be done in Alberta too.  Ask me it's what I do

 

Guy beside me had eye injury not wearing safety glasses & nail puncturing eye.  No requirement for safety glasses at their construction site - really?  Look out for your people!

 

Liked the doctor who helped me, he seemed to understand what was going on and was a bit disappointed with the lack of direction I received so far.

 

Things checked out ok,

I requested he provide something for the GP (in pic) - not sure what all it says - or if sometimes healthcare mistakes are made from misunderstandings on what's written!

I think it says:

 

"Seen here.  Has O/P  MKS ultrasound done mid march for skiing injury to L knee then seen again for swelling L leg & O/P u/s superficial thromboph______ L leg. 

___________ RX _____ + has follow up u/s booked tomorrow am _____ advised if increased swelling L leg + ankle _______ ____________ ________  _______ ____ ____ _____ 99% RA R calf 38cm  L calf 39.5cm ........

 

........

_____ ibuprofen 400mg

.......

have u/s + if toe start oral anticoagulation rivaroxaban 15mg ___ 21 days then 20mg daily x 3-6 weeks.

......

follow up (f/u) family MD after u/s"

 

glad I don't have to decipher on a regular basis - feel free to fill in any blanks/correct me/help finish decode.