Calgary zone Covid-19 Case & Variants update Apr 2021

Alberta Health added Total Variants Active to their data:

Total ACTIVE variant cases

Cumulative Variant cases

New cases

Active cases

Total confirmed

Searched to find reopening criteria as the reopening threshold is not maintained between Phase 1 & 2 as demonstrated:

Mar 1, 2021 - announce Phase 2 reopen 1560 cases (is the threshold below 1600 cases?)

Mar 8, 2021 - Phase 2 reopening 1594 cases (if it’s going back up wouldn’t you pause?)

Apr 7, 2021 - Phase 1 return cases over 5000

It is unclear whether the threshold is around 1600 or 5000, or what it is based on.  Search did not turn up clear criteria.

Alberta predictably prevents itself from reaching zero covid by reopening & maintaining spread.

Some great articles about how the mitigation (maintaining spread) strategy compares to the zero covid strategy, and how the zero covid strategy is healthier for the economy.  It also has shorter lockdowns which do not require masks once everything reopens – even the anti-maskers would be happy about this.

Canada Is One Big Pandemic Response Experiment.

It Proves ‘Zero COVID’ Is Best

• Concludes major French study scanning nations

Those that chose to aggressively eliminate covid19 — China, Australia, Atlantic Canada and others — experienced less social and economic deterioration than those that didn’t.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/04/02/Canada-One-Big-Pandemic-Response-Experiment-Zero-COVID

Aiming for zero Covid-19 to ensure economic growth

• Eliminating Covid-19 is the cheapest path towards economic recovery.

• adopt an elimination strategy that is not solely based on vaccination.

• China, Australia, Cambodia, Iceland, New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, Korea, Laos, and Thailand have followed an elimination strategy.

• The medical and economic arguments for an elimination strategy are overwhelming.

https://voxeu.org/article/aiming-zero-covid-19-ensure-economic-growth

Calgary Zone Covid-19 Case & Variants Update March 2021

Total variant cases

The first P1 variant was identified in Alberta March 13 & added.

Alberta Health started tracking variant cases with a trend chart this month, they note: NOTE: People are identified as COVID-19 cases prior to variant of concern identification. As such, variant of concern reporting is delayed compared to date the case was reported to Alberta Health. All cases were screened for variants of concern starting at the beginning of February, 2021.

This may explain the change in how data was reported. As responses to previous inquiries are rarely responded to or do not provide the answer, new inquiry efforts to clarify are not pursued, data is just displayed based on their daily published #’s

New cases

Active cases

Total confirmed

Covid Flights listed here:

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/latest-travel-health-advice/exposure-flights-cruise-ships-mass-gatherings.html#wb-auto-4

Surprised given how common it is reported on flights that outbreaks are not worse.

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Understanding Vaccine Efficacy

• How efficacy is determined

• Why you cannot compare them

• The purpose of vaccines

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3odScka55A

Other AHS notes:

**Zone of current hospitalization and current ICU admission based on location of hospitalization, NOT zone of patient residence.

data still sourced from

https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-alberta-data.aspx

Calgary Zone Covid-19 cases update & variants Feb 28, 2021

The first UK B.1.1.7 variant was detected in Alberta in Dec. 24 from a Dec. 15 test and made public Dec 28.

The first South African N501Y.V2 variant case in Canada was detected January 8 in Alberta. 

All cases were from travelers returning from out of country.  In other words, we imported them.  Canada has not had a proper lock down since covid19 started, and only recently took responsibility for incoming flights.

Feb 1

- Calgary zone student UK variant (child of a returning traveler)

Feb 3

- Combined COVID mutations are discovered in the UK variant carrying an additional gene mutation seen in a South African variant.

Feb 4

- two more UK variant cases in Calgary zone schools (travel related), total of 5 students

Feb 17

B.1.429 variant that originated in California and the UK variant have reportedly merged and are being monitored.  This occurs when someone is infected with two strains at the same time.   

- The recombinant carries a mutation from the Kent variant - known as B.1.1.7 - which makes the UK virus more transmissible.

- It also carries another mutation from the California variant - known as B.1.429 - which can produce resistance to antibodies.

I think I’m missing the day by day numbers and lack the time to dig for them, however there is enough to start a trend chart.  Pleases forward links to any data I’m missing and I will update – specify date, variant # in Calgary zone, and link.  

I will use Alberta Health’s published variant data going forward as I have been for regular cases here https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-alberta-data.aspx

I find it strange Alberta Health Services reports Calgary case #'s for the day prior "(ex. Table updated March 1. Numbers accurate as of end of day Feb. 28.) yet for Variant cases it appears as same day (ex. Table updated March 1.)

If they do not know same day cases, how could they know the same day variants cases?

I'd ask but they rarely answer my questions and failed to answer everything I asked last year, so I'll just adjust numbers by a day if needed.  It's still a good representation even if off by 24 hours, and like the ebola trend charts I created, these will be the only ones for Calgary zone variants also unless AB health creates some.  They took several months before providing zones info in 2020.

My Thoughts & Question:

Also, it's getting close to a year, will Canada have it's first real lock down at some point?  Flight traffic - which imported the UK variant - is only being addressed as of recently.

There is no shortage of countries that have taken responsibility and successfully controlled and eliminated the virus, allowing their people to be fairly free again. I can think of 6-8 countries off the top of my head (this article says 30 https://coronavirus.nautil.us/which-countries-have-beaten-covid-19).

Is a short lock down actually less expensive than maintaining virus spread as we’ve been doing in Canada?

I requested the cost of these short lock downs to compare with maintaining the spread as we've done for a year.  

I believe an actual lock down would be a cheaper option and healthier for the both the economy and people’s mental health than what Canada has been doing.  We have enough data from countries that have done this to calculate it, or provide reasonable estimates.

I sent a tweet Nov 3 here https://twitter.com/RyanCartiers/status/1323646488895844352 feel free to retweet if you’ve also curious.

Total Confirmed:

New cases only:

Active cases only:

*Today is first day active cases have not decreased since mid January.