Calgary zone Covid-19 Case & Variants update Apr 2021

Alberta Health added Total Variants Active to their data:

Total ACTIVE variant cases

Cumulative Variant cases

New cases

Active cases

Total confirmed

Searched to find reopening criteria as the reopening threshold is not maintained between Phase 1 & 2 as demonstrated:

Mar 1, 2021 - announce Phase 2 reopen 1560 cases (is the threshold below 1600 cases?)

Mar 8, 2021 - Phase 2 reopening 1594 cases (if it’s going back up wouldn’t you pause?)

Apr 7, 2021 - Phase 1 return cases over 5000

It is unclear whether the threshold is around 1600 or 5000, or what it is based on.  Search did not turn up clear criteria.

Alberta predictably prevents itself from reaching zero covid by reopening & maintaining spread.

Some great articles about how the mitigation (maintaining spread) strategy compares to the zero covid strategy, and how the zero covid strategy is healthier for the economy.  It also has shorter lockdowns which do not require masks once everything reopens – even the anti-maskers would be happy about this.

Canada Is One Big Pandemic Response Experiment.

It Proves ‘Zero COVID’ Is Best

• Concludes major French study scanning nations

Those that chose to aggressively eliminate covid19 — China, Australia, Atlantic Canada and others — experienced less social and economic deterioration than those that didn’t.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/04/02/Canada-One-Big-Pandemic-Response-Experiment-Zero-COVID

Aiming for zero Covid-19 to ensure economic growth

• Eliminating Covid-19 is the cheapest path towards economic recovery.

• adopt an elimination strategy that is not solely based on vaccination.

• China, Australia, Cambodia, Iceland, New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, Korea, Laos, and Thailand have followed an elimination strategy.

• The medical and economic arguments for an elimination strategy are overwhelming.

https://voxeu.org/article/aiming-zero-covid-19-ensure-economic-growth

Calgary Zone Covid-19 Case & Variants Update March 2021

Total variant cases

The first P1 variant was identified in Alberta March 13 & added.

Alberta Health started tracking variant cases with a trend chart this month, they note: NOTE: People are identified as COVID-19 cases prior to variant of concern identification. As such, variant of concern reporting is delayed compared to date the case was reported to Alberta Health. All cases were screened for variants of concern starting at the beginning of February, 2021.

This may explain the change in how data was reported. As responses to previous inquiries are rarely responded to or do not provide the answer, new inquiry efforts to clarify are not pursued, data is just displayed based on their daily published #’s

New cases

Active cases

Total confirmed

Covid Flights listed here:

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/latest-travel-health-advice/exposure-flights-cruise-ships-mass-gatherings.html#wb-auto-4

Surprised given how common it is reported on flights that outbreaks are not worse.

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Understanding Vaccine Efficacy

• How efficacy is determined

• Why you cannot compare them

• The purpose of vaccines

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3odScka55A

Other AHS notes:

**Zone of current hospitalization and current ICU admission based on location of hospitalization, NOT zone of patient residence.

data still sourced from

https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-alberta-data.aspx

Calgary Zone Covid-19 cases update & variants Feb 28, 2021

The first UK B.1.1.7 variant was detected in Alberta in Dec. 24 from a Dec. 15 test and made public Dec 28.

The first South African N501Y.V2 variant case in Canada was detected January 8 in Alberta. 

All cases were from travelers returning from out of country.  In other words, we imported them.  Canada has not had a proper lock down since covid19 started, and only recently took responsibility for incoming flights.

Feb 1

- Calgary zone student UK variant (child of a returning traveler)

Feb 3

- Combined COVID mutations are discovered in the UK variant carrying an additional gene mutation seen in a South African variant.

Feb 4

- two more UK variant cases in Calgary zone schools (travel related), total of 5 students

Feb 17

B.1.429 variant that originated in California and the UK variant have reportedly merged and are being monitored.  This occurs when someone is infected with two strains at the same time.   

- The recombinant carries a mutation from the Kent variant - known as B.1.1.7 - which makes the UK virus more transmissible.

- It also carries another mutation from the California variant - known as B.1.429 - which can produce resistance to antibodies.

I think I’m missing the day by day numbers and lack the time to dig for them, however there is enough to start a trend chart.  Pleases forward links to any data I’m missing and I will update – specify date, variant # in Calgary zone, and link.  

I will use Alberta Health’s published variant data going forward as I have been for regular cases here https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-alberta-data.aspx

I find it strange Alberta Health Services reports Calgary case #'s for the day prior "(ex. Table updated March 1. Numbers accurate as of end of day Feb. 28.) yet for Variant cases it appears as same day (ex. Table updated March 1.)

If they do not know same day cases, how could they know the same day variants cases?

I'd ask but they rarely answer my questions and failed to answer everything I asked last year, so I'll just adjust numbers by a day if needed.  It's still a good representation even if off by 24 hours, and like the ebola trend charts I created, these will be the only ones for Calgary zone variants also unless AB health creates some.  They took several months before providing zones info in 2020.

My Thoughts & Question:

Also, it's getting close to a year, will Canada have it's first real lock down at some point?  Flight traffic - which imported the UK variant - is only being addressed as of recently.

There is no shortage of countries that have taken responsibility and successfully controlled and eliminated the virus, allowing their people to be fairly free again. I can think of 6-8 countries off the top of my head (this article says 30 https://coronavirus.nautil.us/which-countries-have-beaten-covid-19).

Is a short lock down actually less expensive than maintaining virus spread as we’ve been doing in Canada?

I requested the cost of these short lock downs to compare with maintaining the spread as we've done for a year.  

I believe an actual lock down would be a cheaper option and healthier for the both the economy and people’s mental health than what Canada has been doing.  We have enough data from countries that have done this to calculate it, or provide reasonable estimates.

I sent a tweet Nov 3 here https://twitter.com/RyanCartiers/status/1323646488895844352 feel free to retweet if you’ve also curious.

Total Confirmed:

New cases only:

Active cases only:

*Today is first day active cases have not decreased since mid January.

Calgary Zone Covid-19 cases update Jan 2021

Confirmed cases:

(tried a jpeg format, it’s missing the info box)

New Cases:

Active Cases:

**Zone of current hospitalization and current ICU admission based on location of hospitalization, NOT zone of patient residence.

I was considering ending my tracking for Calgary zone, however the new variants are not being charted by Alberta Health Services, and the last time it took months for them to provide Calgary zone specific information, so I will chart as I did for variants in the Feb. end of month post.

The 1st Alberta UK variant was detected in Alberta in Dec. 24 from a Dec. 15 test and made public Dec 28.

Jan 8 AB had it’s first SA variant case.

All cases were from travelers returning from out of country. In other words, we imported it. Canada has not had a proper lock down since covid19 started, and is only talking about getting serious about flights.

I will also be tracking the ebola outbreak as I did for the previous 11th outbreak, so a trend visual is available.

Calgary zone Covid-19 case update Dec 2020

TOTAL Confirmed cases to date

NEW cases

ACTIVE cases to date

80% reduction in development time to support covid vaccine.

Lean and the global Covid-19 vaccine race

Pall Corp. used lean product and process development (LPPD) principles to reduce normal 40 week development times down to 8 weeks.

https://planet-lean.com/lean-process-development-vaccine

Calgary zone covid19 cases only to date Sept. 2020

No further replies from Alberta Health to my questions including why they stopped publishing weekend numbers, etc. Still waiting…

Here’s the update based on the numbers they published:

Calgary Zone Covid19 TOTAL Confirmed cases:

NEW cases only to date

ACTIVE cases only to date

Calgary zone covid19 cases only to date August 30, 2020

As reported daily by Alberta Health. They finally responded to one of my questions on twitter about why there is so much of a difference between their daily published numbers and their trend chart. AHS replied “covid19AB cases may fluctuate between daily increases and net increases due to amendments and updates during investigations; this can include transferring out of province cases and resolving the status of probable cases.”

I asked if this means the daily reported #’s are what was identified in Alberta that day, and if Alberta Health is updating for residents testing positive out of province, and subtracting people visiting AB that test positive here, and have heard nothing for 10 days.

Still waiting on responses to my other questions from months ago as well, not expecting a response to them either.

Trend charts based on AHS daily #’s:

Calgary zone TOTAL Confirmed cases to date

Calgary zone covid19 NEW cases to date

Calgary zone ACTIVE cases to date

Calgary zone covid19 case update to July 31, 2020

Confirmed cases still increasing however recent spike 2 weeks ago seems to have tapered.

Active cases increased for 2 weeks then decreased last week. Mandatory masks start Aug. 1st we’ll see if it has any impact.

Still no proper response from Alberta Health on any questions I’ve asked, they just give me the same link over & over which lacks the information I requested; I also pointed out June 25 the trend chart does not match daily active & confirmed case numbers they published. Here’s the 1st example I sent them:

AHS published 5785 confirmed cases on July 17, the date of this screenshot.

Yet the July 22 trend chart reports

July 17 having 5883 cases.

What accounts for 98 case the difference?

They did not respond to this example. Here’s another: July 30 reports 6470 confirmed cases

However the trend chart on August 2 shows a different number of cases on July 30, it says 6499.

What accounts for the 39 case difference?

I noticed the numbers are often different so I’ve done a few screen shot examples to have them account for the difference.

Covid19 Cases Jump in Calgary - July 20 update

Last weekend confirmed cases increased 104, +35/day average

This weekend confirmed cases increased 311, +103/day average, 199% higher than last weekend.

(For some reason AHS has stopped reporting weekend #’s also, so they’re averaged over the weekend)

Active cases started climbing again July 10 when they had been steady around 228;

on Friday they were 385 and today (Monday) 553.

AHS reported #’s show new cases have jumped in Calgary zone from 75 during the week July 7-10 to 166 new cases during last week, a 121% increase.

Calgary zone covid19 cases up to Jun 4

10 days after #Calgary reopened #covid19 cases to date. 

We’ll see if cases start to increase from it or recent protest gatherings.

Still waiting on Alberta Health to respond with active case #’s March 5 - May 8

Calgary zone covid19 cases up to May 18

Some days Active Cases were reported instead of Total; so I added an Active cases chart & reached out to Alberta Health for data on those days & will update once received.

If you would like this posted daily let me know

NEW cases only May 18

ACTIVE cases only May 18

Total Confirmed cases May 18

Calgary zone covid19 NEW cases only up to May 10

Decided to chart new cases only specific to Calgary zone as I do not see anywhere else this information available.

Calgary may flatten curve before 4000 covid19 cases

Fourth day in a row below 100 new cases a day.

Social distancing still in effect to support this, may be needed till reducing to zero. 

Calgary zone covid19 cases

Data based on Alberta daily reports containing Calgary new & total for that day. 

Where new is not reported, the previous days total is subtracted. 

Results averaged for Apr 15-17 due to fire.

Please send additional links to confirmed numbers for previous dates, particularly missing dates for new cases March 19, April 4 & 11 in comments or tweet @ryancartiers.

Calgary zone covid19 cases by date April 28

Data based on Alberta daily reports containing Calgary new & total for that day. 

Where new is not reported, the previous days total is subtracted. 

Please send additional links to confirmed numbers for previous dates, particularly missing dates for new.

I update daily, let me know if you want it posted daily.

Calgary covid19 cases by date up to April 24, 2020

Have been tracking on a couple sticky notes.

Data based on Alberta daily reports containing Calgary new & total for that day. 

Where new is not reported, the previous days total is subtracted. 

Please send additional links to confirmed numbers for previous dates, particularly missing dates for new.

Fighting Covid-19 with lean healthcare

Healthcare practitioners share a set of tips hospitals can apply today to support their battle against the corona virus.

read here:

https://planet-lean.com/lean-healthcare-covid-19

Don’t Blame “Just in Time” for Your Risky Supply Chain Strategy

The problems are driven by a lowest-piece-price strategy that leads to LONG distances. *That's not JIT.

Excellent business write up for senior management coherency regarding the supply chain they have set up by Mark Graban here:

https://www.leanblog.org/2020/03/covid-19-dont-blame-toyota-or-just-in-time-for-your-risky-supply-chain-strategy